The Effects of Taxation on Real Estate
Taxation is an unavoidable part of life. For real estate investors, taxation is a very important variable. Property markets are extremely sensitive and highly influenced by tax policy, so it is important to understand some of the basics. For instance, real estate taxes fall into two categories: transfer taxes (% of sale) and property taxes (% of assessed value charged annually). Changes to either of these two categories will influence broad market valuations.
Higher taxes mean lower property values. Simple, right? The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released a study this May quantifying the impacts of changes in both transfer and property taxes. It turns out that increasing transfer taxes increases the cost of buying and hence drives potential buyers out of the market. For instance, in California it is estimated that about 80,000 would-be buyers are crowded out of the market by every 1% increase in transfer taxes.
Property taxes are the staple of revenue for local governments, and tend to be the largest non-acquisition cost of ownership. These vary by locality, but in Los Angeles County are 1.25% of assessed property value, charged annually. This translates into hefty recurring bills, especially for new buyers. For instance, 1.25% of $435,000 (the Apr ’08 median home price in Los Angeles County) is $5,438. Per the U.S. Census Bureau’s QuickFacts, 2004 median income for the County was $43,518. Because of the sickly confusing amalgamation of local, sales, state, and federal taxes, let’s just assume a rough 30% net tax on income, which adjusts the median take-home income down to $30,463. On this basis, an inocuous-looking 1.25% property tax translates into 18% of after-tax median income. Granted, income figures were taken from 2004 data and may need upward adjustment, but given modest increases in take home pay over the last four years this is not likely significant.
Since property taxes translate directly into cost of ownership, they must effect market value. The way to compute the impact of an incremental adjustment to property tax rates is to apply a discount rate (the buyer’s weighted average cost of capital, i.e. cost of debt plus equity) to the stream of negative cash flows (annual taxes) and compute its present value. Deduct this from current market values and voila, you’ve arrived at the magic value politicians will never cite when telling you childrens’ futures depend on such and such tax increase. NAR’s report arrived at a $13,000 decrement in property value for every $1,000 tax increase. Given current median home prices that translates into a 3% drop in property values for every 23 basis point (0.23%) increase in property taxes.
These simple examples illustrate how important it is to understand the influence tax policy has on property values. This doesn’t even touch on the signficance of depreciation or mortgage interest deduction, which have enormous implications for valuations. To at least understand these basics and to keep a watchful eye on policy developments will gives a tremendous long-term advantage to the serious real estate investor.
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